There’s a Good Chance Meghan Markle Already Had the Baby — Here’s the Evidence

Did Meghan Markle and Prince Harry already have their baby? We believe so. Bold claim, we know. But please hear us out as we present our case.

Fact: On October 15, 2018, Markle and Prince Harry first announced her pregnancy on Twitter: "Their Royal Highnesses The Duke and Duchess of Sussex are very pleased to announce that The Duchess of Sussex is expecting a baby in the Spring of 2019."

Fact: Markle was last photographed publicly on March 19, 2019, when the Duke and Duchess of Sussex visited New Zealand House to sign the book of condolence on behalf of the Royal Family in London, England.

Meghan, Duchess of Sussex and Prince Harry, Duke of Sussex visit New Zealand House to sign the book of condolence on behalf of the Royal Family on March 19, 2019 in London, England

Fact: On March 27, 2019, it was announced that Prince William will be in New Zealand on April 25 and 26 to pay tribute to those affected by the terrorist attack on Christchurch mosques. (Note: His wife, Kate Middleton, will attend the Anzac Day service at Westminster Abbey on April 25, an event she missed last year because, well, Louis.)

Fact: On April 2, 2019, Prince Harry and Markle revealed their brand-new, separate Instagram account, Sussex Royal, splitting their household from Prince William and Middleton at Kensington Royal. (More on this later.)

Fact: On April 11, 2019, this statement was released from Buckingham Palace: "The Duke and Duchess of Sussex are very grateful for the goodwill they have received from people throughout the United Kingdom and around the world as they prepare to welcome their baby ... Their Royal Highnesses have taken a personal decision to keep the plans around the arrival of their baby private ... The Duke and Duchess look forward to sharing the exciting news with everyone once they have had an opportunity to celebrate privately as a new family."

Fact: On April 15, 2019, Clarence House announced, "The Prince [Charles] and The Duchess [of Cornwall] will visit Berlin, Leipzig and Munich during the four-day tour. Their Royal Highnesses last visited Germany together in 2009." The four-day tour takes place May 7-10, 2019. (Of course, there are no official, publicly announced trips scheduled for the Duchess or the Duke of Sussex in the immediate future.)

Fact: Also on April 15, 2019 was the last post on the Duke and Duchess of Sussex's joint Instagram account (as of press time), which included this interesting statement: “Just one week ago, The Duke and Duchess of Sussex asked that you kindly consider supporting various organisations around the world in lieu of sending gifts for the upcoming arrival of their first born.”

Now that we're on track with the timeline, here's what we make of that. Many people took the announcement of the soon-to-be-again grandpa's trip to mean the baby will definitely come before May 7, 2019 — a statement we agree with. That could mean that May 7 is so far after the due date that there's no reasonable chance she'll still be pregnant at that time, which many people also seem to believe. Since Markle is reportedly looking into a natural birth with a doula, it seems highly unlikely that a scheduled c-section date is a factor here.

But what if, when that announcement about Prince Charles and Camilla's trip was made on April 15, the baby had already been born.

While "spring" is a very broad due date time frame, remember the reports that Markle told bystanders in Birkenhead that she was six months pregnant on January 14, 2019, which again is perfectly in line with a April due date. Based on some due date calculations (thanks, Google!), she would have entered her third trimester on January 20. If you do basic math, you'll note April 14 is also exactly three months from January 14, but given that gestation is not exactly nine months on the dot, and that an answer of "six months" is not the same as if Markle had confirmed how many weeks she was exactly, the give-or-take still fits this timeline considering both of those factors.

Then, what if, when their joint Instagram account thanked the public for the shower for the "upcoming arrival of their first born," on April 15, that was also sent out because the baby had technically been born already? After all, while a case could be made that the statement said "upcoming arrival," we'd counter-argue that why announce the donation results of a shower after barely a week and not wait longer as there was no official end to the unofficial social media shower... and it's not like any of the three organizations are no longer accepting donations.

Now, on to the where: It's been heavily spectated that the Baby Sussex won't be born at the Lindo wing of St. Mary's like Middleton's babies were, with rumors of a hospital closer to Frogmore Cottage, like Frimley Park in Surrey. It’s hard to think that a country hospital would have an easy way for celebrities to sneak in and out, especially someone traveling with the security entourage that Prince Harry and Markle likely would arrive with — so we're betting they opted for the home birth instead. That way it would be truly impossible for the general public to ever know if and when the babe was already born.

So, we think that Instagram post went out on April 15 because the baby had been born at that point, and they wanted to have that announcement out so that when they're ready to announce the baby publicly, that post can have preceded the official birth announcement while also coming right after the birth itself. Which leads us to our next question... when?

While many people are betting on April 21 or April 23 for the baby's birth (which would mean the little one would share a birthday with the Queen or Prince Louis, respectively), it seems unlikely that the couple will announce anything over that time frame, which also includes Easter Sunday. So, if we're wrong and the baby has not yet been born and is born between now and April 23, we still don't expect an announcement to come until the end of the next week at the very earliest.

And, for all the naysayers who believe there will be an official announcement outside the palace at the time of birth, remember the couple is already breaking with tradition in so many ways (and see above for their April 11 statement that the official announcement will happen "once they have had an opportunity to celebrate privately as a new family" ... which could have gone out because Markle was already in labor at that time). Again, all so when the official announcement happens, the public statement timeline holds up, etiquette-wise.

Even the (super traditional and rule-following) Duke and Duchess of Cambridge didn't announce Charlotte's birth outside Buckingham Palace with the crier. They instead opted for Twitter for her (and for Louis), and our money's on a joint Twitter and Sussex Royal Instagram announcement for the newest royal baby.

Which, ICYMI, we believe was born on April 14 (or earlier).